New Hampshire Real Estate Market Trends & Analysis
The New Hampshire real estate market appears to be right in line with its national counterparts. Most notably, "The Granite State" is starting to see a decline in mortgage applications and demand due to higher interest rates and fears of an impending recession. At the same time, fewer homeowners are looking to sell because they either don't want to participate in today's overpriced market or trade their low mortgage for a higher one. Both supply and demand have tempered, but it's important to note they are coming down from record highs. While down, demand remains relatively high, and supply doesn't appear to be able to keep up. As a result, the market is expected to continue heading in the same direction as it has the last few years, but at a slower pace.
The Top New Hampshire Real Estate Markets
While the best real estate market in New Hampshire is up for debate, here’s a list of the cities investors may want to pay special considerations to:
Median Sales Price: $460,000 (+12.8% year over year)
Pending Sales: 1,725 (-8.7% year over year)
Closed Sales: 1,595 (-9.9% year over year)
New Listings: 2,282 (-6.6% year over year)
Homes For Sale: 2,068 (-4.1% year over year)
Median Days On Market: 13 (-23.5% year over year)
Median Rent Price: $1,671 (+8.0% year over year)
Price-To-Rent Ratio: 21.62
Unemployment Rate: 2.0% (latest estimate by the Bureau Of Labor Statistics)
Population: 1,388,992 (latest estimate by the U.S. Census Bureau)
Median Household Income: $77,923 (latest estimate by the U.S. Census Bureau)
Foreclosure Rate: One in every 9,534 households (0.06%)
New Hampshire Median Home Prices
The median home value in the New Hampshire real estate market is $433,627. At its current price, New Hampshire's median home value has appreciated at a historic rate. Dating back to the bottom of the last recession, about ten years ago, the median home value in New Hampshire bottomed out at around $214,000; that means the state's median home value has increased 117.9% in one decade. To be clear, home prices rose for ten consecutive years, but the fastest rate of appreciation has taken place in the wake of the pandemic.
Since Covid-19 was officially declared a global emergency (March 2020), the median home value in New Hampshire has increased by 43.1%. In the last year alone, the state's median home value has increased by 18.8%. For the better part of the last decade, supply and demand constraints have contributed to higher home prices. However, the introduction of COVID-19 proceeded to tip the scales more in favor of a seller's market. As interest rates were lowered to prevent a subsequent housing crisis, activity increased significantly. More buyers actively participated in a market without nearly enough inventory. As a result, competition enabled sellers to raise their prices accordingly.
To put things into perspective, the median home value in the United States is $354,165. Since the pandemic began, the median home value in the United States has increased 39.9%, below that of New Hampshire's rate of appreciation. In other words, real estate in New Hampshire has increased in value at a faster pace than the national average. One reason for the faster rate of appreciation may be the state's job market. With a lower-than-average unemployment rate and a higher-than-average median household income, New Hampshire homebuyers may be in a better position than their counterparts in other states. It looks as if New Hampshire homebuyers were slightly more insulated from the negative impacts of the economy and more capable of buying, ultimately leading to more competition and higher rates of appreciation.
Moving forward, higher interest rates will temper buying activity. However, inventory is expected to remain tight, and the resulting New Hampshire real estate market landscape will still lean heavily in favor of sellers. With many economic indicators that lead to past increases still in play, prices are expected to continue rising for the foreseeable future.
New Hampshire Median Rent Prices
Rental prices across the country are influenced by home values and are—therefore—subject to market fluctuations of varying degrees. It is worth noting, however, that there is a direct correlation between increases in home values and subsequent jumps in rental prices—and vice-versa. When home prices increase, for example, it’s safe to assume more prospective buyers will be priced out of the market, ultimately relegating them to renters. Consequently, the more people who are forced to rent, the more landlords will be able to charge in rent. The resulting rental demand from increased home prices will simultaneously drive up competition and prices. Markets in the midst of historical appreciation rates have also seen their rental prices increase, and New Hampshire is no exception.
Just as home prices in New Hampshire have increased more than 18.8% over the last year, local rental rates have responded similarly. While not quite as bullish as home prices, rental rates in the state of New Hampshire have increased 8.0% over the last 12 months. For a better perspective, the median rent price in the United States increased 9.5% over the last year.
Despite the prolonged rental rate increase, it’s typically more affordable to rent a home in New Hampshire than to buy one. With a price-to-rent ratio of 21.62, those looking for a more affordable short-term solution will favor renting. The resulting demand will help long-term rental property investors, who may be able to capitalize on secular tailwinds. Cash flowing rental properties in New Hampshire are one of the most preferred investment vehicles in today’s high-priced market. If for nothing else, years of attractive cash flow can offset historically high acquisition costs.
New Hampshire Foreclosure Trends & Statistics
According to ATTOM Data Solutions' Midyear 2022 U.S. Foreclosure Market Report, a total of 164,581 U.S. properties filed for foreclosure in the first six months of the year. For the period, foreclosure filings were up 153% year over year but down just one percent from the same period two years ago.
“Foreclosure activity across the United States continued its slow, steady climb back to pre-pandemic levels in the first half of 2022,” said Rick Sharga, executive vice president of market intelligence at ATTOM. “While overall foreclosure activity is still running significantly below historical averages, the dramatic increase in foreclosure starts suggests that we may be back to normal levels by sometime in early 2023.”
The New Hampshire housing market contributed 401 foreclosure filings to the national total over the first six months of 2022. At that rate, New Hampshire had the 38th lowest foreclosure rate in the country. The counties which contributed the most foreclosures per housing unit were:
Tax Lien Investing
Tax Lien or Deed: Tax Deed state
Interest Rate: Property owner must pay the state 18% to redeem lien or risk losing property to foreclosure
Redemption Period: Total of 5 years
New Hampshire Real Estate Investing
Real estate investors have grown accustomed to buying distressed assets. Not surprisingly, distressed or foreclosed homes have traditionally offered the most attractive profit margins on flips and rehabs. And while the New Hampshire housing market may have a relatively low foreclosure rate relative to its peers, foreclosures are expected to rise over the next year. Expirations on
foreclosure moratoriums and the threat of a recession could slow the economy and make it more difficult for homeowners to keep up with mortgage obligations. Investors who get their finances in order sooner rather than later may find it easier to get a deal below market value when the influx occurs.
There's no doubt about it; one of the best ways to invest in the New Hampshire real estate market is to buy a foreclosed property. While foreclosures may be on the rise, so too are home prices. Remember, home prices have increased 18.8% over the last year. As a result, the New Hampshire real estate investing community may want to consider an alternative approach: long-term rental properties. While rehabbing is still a viable exit strategy, today's most prominent market indicators look as if they are leaning in favor of rental property portfolios.
While up year-to-date, interest rates are still considered relatively low. As of August, the monthly average commitment rate on a 30-year- fixed-rate mortgage is 4.99%, according to Freddie Mac. While the market may see today's rates as "expensive," that term is relative. Yes, rates are up considerably from a year ago, but they are still below historical levels. More importantly, today's rates can easily help justify buying real estate that has done nothing but appreciate for 10 years. With lower monthly mortgage payments, New Hampshire real estate investors should be able to increase cash flow from properties in operation.
The New Hampshire real estate investing community has the privilege of exercising any number of exit strategies. Market indicators suggest rehabbing and short selling are still very much on the table. However, the new landscape left in the wake of the Coronavirus looks to cater to landlords and passive income investors. Interest rates are too low and demand is too high not to consider buying rental property in New Hampshire.
New Hampshire Housing Market Predictions
The New Hampshire housing market has had a great run, much like the rest of the country. For the better part of a decade, real estate in New Hampshire has exhibited many of the same characteristics as its national counterpart. Price increases, confidence in the market, and several other indicators align with national trends, but what does that mean moving forward? What can the New Hampshire real estate investing community expect moving forward?
Rochester may receive added attention: As one of the largest cities in the New Hampshire real estate market, Rochester already has a fair amount of demand. However, as the cheaper alternative to large cities like Dover, Nashua, and the state’s capital (Concord), Rochester could easily see an influx of buyers in search of lower home prices. Priced well below the median home value in New Hampshire, the median home value in Rochester is a welcome sight to budget-conscious buyers. As a result, it’s reasonable to assume more buyers will turn to Rochester in the coming year, especially with more people being granted the luxury of working from home.
Inventory will drive appreciation: Prices in the New Hampshire real estate market have increased for ten consecutive years. While the driving force behind the latest bought of appreciation may be attributed to several factors, a distinct lack of inventory is perhaps the most prominent reason prices have risen so much. The Coronavirus has also prevented builders from adding to inventory, which only compounds the inventory shortage. Expect prices to increase for the foreseeable future, but at a slower pace than in recent history.
For better or for worse, the New Hampshire real estate market has flourished over the last two years. Despite the Coronavirus, real estate in New Hampshire has been firing on all cylinders. However, today's inflationary economy is expected to slow things down a little. While it is too soon to tell exactly how the New Hampshire real estate market will react to higher interest rates, it is safe to say competition will cool off. Slower rates of appreciation may open a window for local investors to pick up some deals sooner rather than later.
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